The Challenges Ahead for Germany’s Government
As Germany gears up for its upcoming federal elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his party, the Social Democrats (SPD), are preparing for what could be their worst performance since 1887. The SPD, along with their coalition partner, the Green Party, appears to be struggling for third place in the polls, trailing behind the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD).
A Crisis in Leadership
The impending electoral results suggest a deeper issue within Chancellor Scholz’s government. Recent years have seen Germany face significant economic challenges, including a recession that has lasted two years—the longest since World War II. Manufacturing has particularly suffered, with nearly 250,000 jobs lost since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Additionally, concerns over public safety have risen due to terror attacks attributed to extremists. The notion of German efficiency has become a distant memory as infrastructure, like roads and bridges, deteriorates, and train delays become commonplace. Alarmingly, about one in five German children lives in poverty, signaling a more profound structural crisis in the nation that stems from years of mismanagement by its leaders.
The Roots of the Crisis
It’s essential to recognize that the current issues did not arise overnight during Scholz’s term. Instead, he is merely the latest figure in a long-standing political consensus that has become increasingly unsustainable. In 2021, during the last federal elections, Scholz positioned himself as a candidate for continuity, closely associated with the previous long-standing Chancellor, Angela Merkel. This continuity approach has blunted the ability of the public to differentiate between the political parties, as they all appear to contribute to the ongoing struggles.
The Problem of Consensus
Germany is often admired for its political consensus, promoting stability rather than conflict. However, there is a downside: a phenomenon known as groupthink. In this environment, ideas and policies become entrenched, leading to a lack of innovation and the avoidance of necessary debates. Consequently, all mainstream political parties are implicated in the unfolding crises, with new ideas struggling to gain traction even with a change of leadership.
Germany’s Energy Transition Missteps
Among the significant blunders Germany has made in recent years is the misguided Energiewende, or energy transition. Given Germany’s heavily industrialized economy, unreliable energy sources are a significant concern. While the previous government pushed for substantial investment in wind and solar energy, this shift overlooked the necessity of consistent and dependable energy supply. The decision to phase out nuclear power in favor of renewable energy was particularly risky, leading to challenges in maintaining a stable energy grid.
Economic Consequences
The combination of these energy policies and external pressures, like the energy crisis brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has severely hampered Germany’s industrial base. Iconic companies like Volkswagen are downsizing and closing factories for the first time in their histories. Also, energy prices have dramatically increased over the past decade, further diminishing German industry’s global competitiveness.
Germany previously relied on affordable Russian gas to power its economy, and the sudden loss of this resource made it hard to compete internationally. The shift in reliance on global gas markets has left German industries struggling to adapt.
Facing New Global Challenges
Additionally, Germany has not appropriately adjusted to the economic landscape shaped by China’s rising manufacturing ambitions. Previously thought to forever be the supplier of inexpensive goods to Germany, China is now competing in sectors where Germany traditionally excelled, such as automobile manufacturing. This shift has led to a burgeoning trade deficit between the two countries.
Bureaucratic Barriers to Progress
Wolfgang Münchau, in his book Kaput: The End of the German Miracle, points out various orthodoxies that are impeding Germany’s potential for progress. One such issue is Germany’s inclination toward protectionism, which restricts competition and innovation. Moreover, a strict fiscal discipline—the debt brake—has limited public investment, hampering the necessary upkeep of infrastructure.
Germany’s infrastructure, now in disrepair, has created bottlenecks in transport and connectivity, making it fall behind in the digital age, where poor internet connectivity and antiquated practices, like the use of fax machines, still persist in many businesses.
Security Concerns
The troubles extend beyond economic and infrastructural challenges; issues of crime and safety have also come to the forefront. Recent terror incidents have raised alarms about public safety, leading to fear and anxiety among citizens. Although most migrants pose no threat, the political establishment’s approach to immigration—such as the controversial decisions made during the 2015 refugee crisis—has created a complex situation that mainstream parties seem reluctant to address directly.
The Political Response
Rather than proactively addressing the underlying concerns of voters, party leaders have suggested restricting dissenting voices, such as those of the AfD. Despite their controversial positions, the AfD resonates with many voters who feel ignored by the mainstream parties. The establishment’s decision to circumvent meaningful conversation may only intensify dissent among citizens feeling marginalized.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
Germany once stood as a symbol of economic power and political stability. Now, it serves as a cautionary tale for complacent leadership that ignores criticism and fails to adapt. The upcoming elections may serve as a wake-up call, highlighting that the existing political consensus is obsolete. However, whether that message will lead to substantial change remains to be seen.
About the Author
Fraser Myers is the deputy editor at spiked and host of the spiked podcast. You can follow him on social media for additional insights and commentary.
