Recently, scientists have found that asteroid 2024 YR4, which was once labeled the most dangerous asteroid, now has an almost nonexistent chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have assessed the risk and determined that the odds of this asteroid colliding with our planet are nearly zero.
According to NASA, the asteroid has a 0.0017% chance of hitting Earth, while ESA estimates it at around 0.002%. This translates to a 1 in 59,000 chance of impact, indicating that there is a 99.9983% likelihood that 2024 YR4 will pass by Earth safely in seven years. Furthermore, NASA mentioned that it has a 1.7% chance of hitting the moon, but this does not pose any threat to Earth.
When 2024 YR4 was first discovered, it had a small chance of impacting Earth in 2032. As astronomers continued to observe it and gather data, they were able to refine their models to understand its path more accurately. With new information, they concluded that there is no significant risk of this asteroid hitting our planet over the next century. This means that its possible positions on December 22, 2032, have shifted to be much farther away from Earth.
In addition, the asteroid has now received a ranking of 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which indicates that the likelihood of a collision is effectively zero. This scale helps categorize the potential risks of space objects colliding with Earth.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 131 and 295 feet wide, which is similar to the size of a large building. If it were to collide with Earth, it could cause significant damage to a localized area.
The rapid decrease in the asteroid’s risk was made possible due to the dedicated work of astronomers who utilized telescopes worldwide to monitor it closely. Richard Binzel, who helped create the Torino Scale, noted how surprised he was at how quickly they could lower the risk. He emphasized that it is better for the public not to dwell on uncertainty for an extended period and that a clear outcome is preferred: either a safe pass or a collision.
Just last week, 2024 YR4 briefly surpassed a record previously held by asteroid Apophis, which was spotted in 2004. At its highest threat level, 2024 YR4 reached a score of 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a higher chance of collision compared to Apophis at 2.7%. Observations from NASA showed a peak risk of 3.1% for 2024 YR4, which made it significant among asteroids tracked over the last twenty years.
Despite initial concerns, astronomers anticipated that as they collected more data, the perceived risk would decline. The challenges stemmed from uncertainties regarding the asteroid’s size and orbit. Fortunately, ample observations were made after February’s full moon, which previously obscured the view of the faint asteroid, allowing scientists to assess its risk more accurately.
Several key telescopes were involved in these observations, including the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the Subaru Telescope, and others in locations like New Mexico and Chile. These facilities provided important data to help scientists reach their conclusions. As the trajectory of 2024 YR4 shifts further away, ground-based telescopes will soon be unable to track it until 2028.
However, astronomers plan to continue observing the asteroid closely. The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe 2024 YR4 soon, which will provide more precise information regarding its orbit and size. This ongoing vigilance aims to ensure that any potential risks are kept under constant review.