U.S. Military Space Tracking Systems Face Increased Strain from Emerging Threats

Enhancing U.S. Military Space Tracking Capabilities

The U.S. military is currently facing a critical challenge as it attempts to upgrade its outdated systems for tracking objects in space. With a significant increase in the number of satellites orbiting Earth and the emergence of advanced capabilities from other countries, military officials believe the current systems are inadequate to handle modern threats.

The Challenges of Modern Space Tracking

Historically, the systems in place for tracking space objects were established during the Cold War, relying on manual processes that cannot keep up with today’s rapid developments. Military leaders, together with industry experts, highlight that the old infrastructure is not equipped to monitor the dynamic and increasingly congested environment of low Earth orbit (LEO), where satellites make unpredictable maneuvers, and new commercial launches occur frequently.

At Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, military personnel undertake the labor-intensive task of updating the space catalog, crucial for flight safety across the globe. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) uses ground-based radars, optical telescopes, and space-based sensors to monitor about 47,000 objects, including active satellites and space debris.

However, experts assert that this manual approach has become unsustainable. As satellite activity grows and complexities increase, there is a pressing need for advanced machine learning systems that can automate the identification of space objects and predict their behaviors based on historical data.

Geosynchronous Orbit and Rising Concerns

One zone of particular concern is geosynchronous orbit (GEO), situated around 22,236 miles above Earth, where many military communication and early warning satellites operate. Recently, instances such as the Chinese spacecraft, Shijian-21, towing a defunct satellite into a "graveyard orbit" raised alarms within the Pentagon. Such operations could potentially be used to disrupt or disable other nations’ space assets.

Space Force Chief General Chance Saltzman emphasizes that awareness and understanding of the space domain are essential for U.S. national security and ensuring secure access to space. Recent incidents have proven the need for improved monitoring capabilities in GEO, especially following the breakup of the Intelsat 33e satellite, which created over 700 debris pieces, complicating an already dangerous environment.

Current State of Space Tracking Investments

Tracking military expenditure for space monitoring is complex, spanning multiple budgets and programs. Some estimates indicate a proposed allocation of about $854 million in the Space Force’s fiscal year 2025 budget, though this is still subject to Congressional approval. Alongside this, defense committees urge the Space Force to seek partnerships with commercial services to enhance tracking capabilities.

Despite advances like the Advanced Tracking and Launch Analysis System (ATLAS), which aims to replace older systems, critics argue these measures may not suffice. A broader suite of capabilities is necessary to monitor dynamic space activities effectively.

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence

A potential solution lies in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. High-ranking officials, including Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, assert that the future of space domain awareness relies on automated systems capable of making rapid decisions. With thousands of satellites operating in space, there is an urgent need for AI to help expedite the monitoring process and enhance safety.

Reports suggest that AI and machine learning can significantly improve space monitoring, helping to optimize sensor operation and predict potential collisions. Companies are making strides in utilizing AI to analyze extensive data sets, though the integration of these technologies into military operations has been slow.

Future Directions in Space Tracking

The Space Force is actively seeking input from the industry regarding next-generation tracking technologies and plans to request funding for enhanced capabilities. Col. Bryon McClain indicates that there are considerations in place for a new surveillance architecture specific to GEO.

In a call for a more robust approach to space tracking, experts advocate for utilizing a combination of sensors to improve detection accuracy and establish better data-sharing practices with allies and commercial partners. The need for a comprehensive strategy is growing as international tensions increase concerning space operations.

Challenges remain, including outdated practices and delayed transitions in responsibilities between government agencies. To compete effectively, the military must modernize its tracking systems urgently.

Conclusion

Looking ahead, the integration of advanced technologies and innovative strategies presents an opportunity for the U.S. military to enhance its space domain awareness and operational capabilities. The necessity for rapid decision-making and a modernized, automated approach to space tracking cannot be overstated.

As military and industry leaders recognize the urgency of these developments, it is clear that the future of space navigation hinges not only on advanced technologies but also on clear requirements and funding commitments to support these essential upgrades.